There seems to be a very common theme when baseball pundits talk about the Detroit Tigers’ acquisition of Dontrelle Willis in the blockbuster deal that also brought young superstar Miguel Cabrera to Motown. That theme is that they don’t think he’s going to be great for the Tigers.
This isn’t even especially thoughtful analysis. Willis has seen a significant decline in his results the last few seasons. When you factor that with the fact that he’s moving to the more-powerful offensive league, it’s a simple math problem that seems to equal ‘not great.’
What seems to always be forgotten, however, is that Willis was not acquired to be the ace or even a second ace for the Tigers rotation. I’ve seen him projected as late as number four in the rotation.
Now, if you want to say that it’s disappointing for a young, former Cy Young winner to be no better than a fourth starter for a contender, that’s fine.
However, I’d be willing to bet that he’s going to be one of the best fourth starters in the AL this year and what more do you need from the fourth guy in your rotation.
In case you’re one of those people, please pay attention here: The Tigers are not counting on a return to dominance from Willis this season.
Okay? Get that?
Certainly, everyone is hoping for a better year than what he had last year, when he won 10 games with an ERA over 5.00. That’s certainly not worthy of your staff ace, but from a deep-in-the-rotation guy, you’re not going to complain about that, especially when the guy logs over 200 innings.
But then, let’s go ahead and assume that he won’t be facing the same caliber of pitchers from the fourth slot. Would it be unreasonable to extrapolate that into at least ten wins, despite the switch in leagues?
Is there a chance that going from being the franchise’s most-identifiable player in Florida to a roster loaded with stars with big-time name recognition could relieve maybe a little bit of pressure? Could less pressure to carry the team help lower that ERA, even a little bit?
And, without making excuses for a guy who’s known to not make excuses, there were reports that he may have pitched through some nagging injuries last year. Take that for what you will, but when a guy who pitched as well as Willis struggles a bit, it sometimes can be something other than a sudden degradation of skills and having somehow forgotten how to pitch.
Somehow, I hear people using Willis as one of the reasons the Tigers are suspect as contenders, despite the ridiculous batting order they’ll trot out nightly. It seems to have turned into one of those bits of wisdom someone said and sounded good enough to some to be repeated ad infinitum, without really analyzing the situation.
Now, let’s say Willis comes out and lays an egg completely. How badly would he have to pitch to really drag the team down?
Eh, I don’t even care to speculate in that direction. I’ve been a fan of the guy since he started dominating his rookie season. I’m glad to have him.
So just remember, when August is getting old and Willis has already won a dozen games or so, I laid it out for you like this and, while I asserted that we weren’t relying on a bounce-back season to carry the team, it certainly will have been nice to let it make things even more fun through the summer.
